Wed. Apr 14th, 2021

Temporary melting in Tensions with North Korea have been increased for at least six weeks during the Olympics. With South Korea President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un offering a summit for a late April meeting and US-North Korea talks on the table, there is now a real opportunity for progress.

But if it seems that the issue of North Korea has been a rollercoaster ride in the past year, Buckle. Now we are entering a truly unstable, unpredictable and dangerous period.

For months, all sides have been making angles for their respective goals. US President Donald Trump’s administration has focused on “maximum pressure” by increasing sanctions on North Korea. North Korea has run to prove the strength of its nuclear and missile capabilities, and then reached South Korea for talks in a possible effort to ease economic pressure and split South Korea from its ally America. Moon – already leaning toward an engagement with the North – tried for some time to present a united front with the United States, but when presented with a proposal for negotiation, he turned to American diplomacy Leaped at him in spite of doubt.

Regardless of how one analyzes these events and produced the diplomatic opening, this week’s news is an important step forward. according to this South Korea, North Korea has agreed: a summit between the two Korean leaders in late April; A hotline among Korean leaders; If there is no guarantee of the North and its security, then support for nuclearization; Support for US-North Korea negotiations that would include depreciation and normalization of relations; And there is no nuclear or missile test while negotiations continue. None of this indicates a substantive change in North Korea’s position – rather, it should be considered North Korea’s negotiating stance.

The US should now engage in high-level diplomacy with North Korea. But assuming that just arriving at the table is the really easy part. What comes next is the real challenge.

Previously, Trump has no choice but to speak with North Korea. While the United States is basically drawn and the situation has been shouted down by the two Koreas, the refusal of this exaggeration would create even more rift between Washington and Seoul, refusing to let the United States reduce tensions Should look like a do-it-yourself party, and possibly support for the SAP Global Economic Pressure campaign – which will benefit all North Korea.

Cartoon on north korea

Second, the top immediate priority is to avoid Washington and Seoul from pursuing negotiations. It is no secret that there is no good relationship between Moon and Trump, and that the South Korean government is deeply concerned about its treatment by Trump. This lack of trust among allies is in no small part the reason that South Korea has pushed forward its negotiations with North Korea, despite mixed signals from the US about its diplomacy. During the negotiations, Kim would take as much as possible from South Korea, and pull South Korea with the United States in making concessions. The United States and South Korea need to be on the same page, or there will be no chance of negotiation.

Third, any progress will be slow, difficult and difficult. Initial progress in negotiations may seem small: a schedule for meetings that actually takes place; Compromise on the broader agenda; Family reunion between the two Koreas; The search for the remains of American service members from the Korean War resumed in North Korea; Humanitarian aid. Movements on larger issues – including nuclear and missile programs – will increase bite-size before real progress is possible.

Fourth, a breakdown in negotiations with North Korea at a more dangerous stage could be the beginning. The Trump administration will point to the failure of talks to thwart the case that diplomacy cannot work with North Korea and that the deterrent military option is the only way to stop North Korea. North Korea will once again embark on provocations such as missiles and nuclear tests and the escalation cycle will heat up again. For this reason, it is important that expectations for this round of diplomacy remain practical.

As this new phase begins, it is important to remember what has not changed: the United States and South Korea want nuclearization, which is unlikely for North Korea; And North Korea wants the US to leave the Korean Peninsula, which the United States will not. One key to success will be for both parties to allow the other to maintain these issues, while first progressing to smaller issues.

To maximize the chances of progress, the United States and South Korea should coordinate positions and seize the initiative in negotiations, rather than simply postpone North Korean proposals. If successful, preliminary talks can reduce tensions, establish a more stable position on the peninsula, take confidence-building measures that can open the way to greater progress, and gather intelligence on North Korea’s demands . This could be the beginning of a more stable strategy of condemnation and control of North Korea that includes dialogue and leaves open the possibility of further progress down the road.

While the United States should be skeptical as to what the negotiations might yield, the first set of actual negotiations will take place after Kim takes over North Korea. Former US Sen. George as Michelle Mitchell What was said In his successful attempts to negotiate peace in Northern Ireland: “I had 700 days of ‘no’ … and a ‘yes’.”

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