Fri. Feb 26th, 2021

Political journalists In The Washington Post, people from the Center for American Progress, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and others who specialize in liberal headship, many believe that a big blue wave is about to arrive in Texas in November. Will crash.

Do not believe it. The GOP may be in trouble in some parts of the country, but everything is fine in Texas. In 2006 – the last time the Dems withdrew the House – Republicans had a 12-point advantage in the Texas primary voting. In 2018, he gained 20 points.

The best evidence for this is the results of Tuesday’s primary elections. Going into Election Day, it was widely reported that “early turnout” among Democrats had increased by more than 100 percent for the last midterm election. Voting among the GOP voters was high, but only slightly over 10 percent.

Smart people, meaning those whose political predictions carry the most weight (heaven knows why) said that Democrats were on track in their mission to turn on Texas Blue. Which means they either don’t know Texas or they need to find a new line of work.

Voting was actually on both sides of the aisle, but as far as Democrats are concerned, the vast majority of voters are people who do not usually vote in the primaries, but in general elections. This means that there is not much to add to the millions or more voters who turned out to vote for Robert “Betto” O’Rourke and other Democrats, while the GOP has much room to add 1.5 million or so voters . Republican government Greg Abbott, Republican US Sen. Ted Cruz, to rename all other statewide official holders (who are all Republicans) and members of Congress and the state legislature.

Editorial cartoon on Democrats in Trump era

There are very few local offices in areas that should be Democrat-friendly, where the county judge (which is the top administrative office in the jurisdiction), the tax accessor, or any other local office of which state officials and members of Congress eventually Spring arrives. The lack of a “farm team”, as we call it back in the days when I practiced politics rather than writing about it, is fatal, not only in Texas but throughout the South and, well, the Midwest.

The fact that a fakers would find it uncomfortable is that in 2018 Republicans blew their own voting record, casting the most votes in Texas primary history. Even O’Rourke, whom you’ll hear more about until it becomes clear that he can’t win either a big cruise missstep or a miracle, is more likely to be the latter, against two challengers 62 Got less than the percentage of votes that no one had ever heard of and which cost almost no money. Even Wendy Davis, whom Abbott kicked out of the water in the 2014 Gubernatorial race, would make it a real match despite predictions, winning 78 percent of her nomination election.

Still, many people will claim directly with faces that the GOP (Trump) positions on immigration and trade will alienate Latino voters, who will go for Democrats in the draw. There is no evidence of this and anyone who says so is blowing smoke. The real threat to Republican incumbents comes from upper incomes, swept away from our Texas heritage by our fancy college education voters and transplanted Californians living in the suburbs surrounding Houston and Dallas. They like their tax cuts and are putting them on the courts with the advice and consent of senators, like Trump Cruz, like pro-life constitutional judges. They just don’t like the president all that much because all his friends at the country club don’t like him very much – even if he is named in the same club.

After the votes were counted on Tuesday, Jim Dean, president of Democracy for America, was unconscious. “We’ve got a long road in November,” he said in a statement, “but the wins we saw last night at Lone Star State, as well as some win set-ups in the runoff primaries, strongly suggest momentum. Are the creation behind a nationwide blue tsunami. “You will keep hearing this kind of thing for some time, largely because it helps the progressive national fundraising team to have points on the board. What Dean and other Democrats will not accept is the long road he has spoken on and how far from November 2018.

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